[Originally published in Turkish Daily News]
Music has not saved the world, as some pot smoking flower-powerists used to believe it would in the 1960s. Yet musicians have occasionally uttered words of wisdom that might have helped us calm our hypes. Gordon Matthew Thomas Sumner, better known by his stage name Sting, once gave one such message of restraint. In one of his greatest songs, “The Russians,” released very timely in 1985, Sting sang the following:
“In Europe and America,
There is a growing feeling of hysteria,
Conditioned to respond to all the threats,
In the rhetorical speeches of the Soviets.
Mr. Khrushchev said we will bury you,
[But] I don’t subscribe to this point of view,
It would be such an ignorant thing to do,
If the Russians love their children, too.”
Sting was right. Russians, like all humans, love their children. Thus, despite their crazy ideology (called communism), they did not take the step that would plunge the world into a nuclear holocaust. Mr. Khrushchev’s rhetoric remained what it was — rhetoric.
Root causes of the Problem
Then the Soviet era ended and most fears about the Russians — except about their mafia, perhaps — disappeared. Yet soon another “Evil Empire” emerged in the minds of some Americans, and, less so, Europeans. Especially after Sept. 11, radical regimes and currents in the Muslim world have been defined as the new threat. This novel enemy, as President Bush named it, was “Islamofascism.”
Although I don’t like the term, I don’t doubt the existence of the threat that it implies. I know that fanatics can and do kill innocent people in the name of Islam — as can be the case with virtually all religions and philosophies in times of crises. But I have always sensed, and argued, that the problem stems more from the political and social troubles of the Muslim world than its religion. Yes, suicide bombers of Islamic Jihad target Israeli civilians by crying “Allah-u Akbar.” But three decades ago, it was Marxist militants led by George Habash, a Palestinian with Christian background, who were hitting Israelis. Obviously there is political and social trouble in Palestine — guess what it is — that creates perpetual radical motion. It just happens to be expressed in Islamic terms these days.
The “Muslim rage,” as Bernard Lewis once called it, has such earthly “root causes.” Yet some hawks in the West, and most notably the United States, insist that the “root cause” is Islam itself, as a religion. Moreover, they claim that this threat is even more serious than that of the Soviets. Muslims, they argue, believe in martyrdom, and hence don’t fear death. So, the reasoning goes, it would not be possible to “deter” militant Muslims by conventional balances of power.
Iran especially became the focus of this gosh-we-cannot-deter-them-so-lets-nuke-them-in-advance argument. We have continuously heard that the Iranian regime, and especially its furious president, is hell-bent on a nuclear apocalypse, and thus a “pre-emptive” war is needed. Others have been trying to tell the Americans and the Israelis that although Tehran’s language was dreadful, its mind was not as senseless as they assumed. Turkish President Abdullah Gül, for example, recently said to his Israeli counterpart, Shimon Peres, that Iran’s threats “were just rhetoric.”
Myth of the Mad Mullahs
In the face of all that, the recent report by the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program is most meaningful. By stating that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003, the NIE has confirmed that much of the “Persian Peril” is indeed overblown. In his Washington Post column of Dec. 5, which was aptly titled, “The Myth of the Mad Mullahs,” journalist David Ignatius notes:
“For the past several years, U.S. intelligence analysts have doubted hawkish U.S. and Israeli rhetoric that Iran is dominated by ‘mad mullahs’ – clerics whose fanatical religious views might lead to irrational decisions. In the new NIE, the analysts forcefully posit an alternative view of an Iran that is rational, susceptible to diplomatic pressure and, in that sense, can be ‘deterred’.”
I think it would be great for all of us if Americans realize all of these nuances instead of creating “visionary” — i.e. crude and sweeping — scenarios about “World War III.” There is no united front of evil “Islamofascists” trying to take over the world. Such black-and-white scenarios exist only in Hollywood blockbusters. In the real world, there are various radical Islamic regimes and movements, which all have their specific contexts, particular targets, and different levels of radicalism. The most radical of them, al-Qaeda, seems indeed undeterrable, because it is a nihilistic killing machine with only abstract goals. But most others — such as Hamas or Hezbollah — could possibly be reached out to through diplomacy, covert or open. States like Iran are even more accessible because they have so many things to lose from war.
Yes, I know that Chamberlain’s appeasement policy failed in the face of Hitler, and I have heard all the other arguments for hawkishness. But history is also full of counter examples. It was only wise for President Truman to discard the militarism of General MacArthur. Similarly the current American president, and especially the next one, should disregard the warmongers in the United States. Despite the latter’s presumption, Muslims, too, love their children.
Dear Mustafa,
I’m from Malaysia. Greetings to you from Malaysians.
I will not comment on this or any other article for now because every piece you write is such a wonderful, compelling, articulating and forceful piece that it appeals to the very heart of your reader. Here, in Malaysia, many of us can’t wait for the next day when your article will appear in the Turkish Daily News. One thing we like is how you demolish your enemies, opponents or “sparring colleagues”. You leave them in the lurch, wondering where they were hit. Your argument is deep, cuts across all civilizations and it is very, very informed. Your level of engagement is realistic, informing, balanced, far from prejudice and inward hatred; the tools of some of the colleagues who engage you sometimes. When some “sparring colleagues” whether in Turkey or outside hit at certain issues, people or subjects you defend or explain, I can’t wait for your next article that will shed light on the given subject. I start boasting to my friends that it will be as forceful as Aykol always is. And how true, you don’t disappoint Mr. Mustafa; always in your element. Persuasive, informing, engaging, appealing, forceful, respectful, and a bit of sarcasm too. We salute you Mustafa!
On a different subject, I would like to inform certain people in Turkey who bring parallel between Malaysia and Turkey saying that Turkey is becoming another Malaysia that they are very shameful and ill informed. Malaysia doesn’t share anything with Turkey; virtually anything at all, and more so when it comes to how social issues and life is perceived and lived. It will be very foolish to do so if not utter lunacy. Our setup as nation, the role of Islam in our nation, the constitutional monarchy we have, the multiracial culture we harbour here, and the environment we live in now or in the past are all very different both from Ottoman Turkey and after the Republic was formed till today. So that has to be digested by the forces of hate and secularism apartheid in Turkey. We are proud of our nation, its history, Islam’s position, our constitutional monarchy, multiracial culture and social cohesion. On your part, we wish you all the best and may you grow great as you were as a nation always. Happy Turkey!
The current US administration is committed to negotitiating with Iran. But I take exception to the notion that Iran’s presidents bellicose statements are merely rhetoric. Iran is actively trying to destabalize the Middle East by providing advanced weapons in Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon. This is not merely rhetoric. It was Iranian weapons that made the so called Iraqi insurgency so deadly to American and Iraqi forces. Beyond this there is the repressiveness of the Iranian theocracy. It persecutes minorities like the Baha’is and is driving out intellectuals who have views inconsistent with those of the ruling mullahs. Hopefully Iran will change its behaviour but it will require continuing pressure from the West and hopefully from more moderate Muslim countries like Turkey. It is not a good sign that Turkey’s president dismisses the threat Iran poses as mere rhetoric.
Martin Bebow makes a good point re Iran’s overall stance and policy in the Middle East. I think it would be unwise to dismiss Iran’s threats as “just rhetoric”. On the other hand, it is the desire of many if not most Americans to work with Iran rationally and diplomatically. The majority of Americans regard Bush & Co.’s “World War III/Apocalypse” scenario as totally off the wall. You could practically hear the national gasp when that was presented as a serious concern! And most of us cringe when the term “Islamofacism” is used, although a few extremists on this side of the ocean have latched onto it as a focus for their xenophobia. My request is, “Please don’t lump all Americans together with the Bush administration!” The majority of Americans did not even vote for him. We will probably never be able to undo all of the harm the present administration has inflicted, but we are trying to ameliorate it. Your writing continues to be a resource as we do that.
Mary Rader
“It was Western weapons that made the so called Iraqi army of dictator Saddam so deadly to Iranians. Beyond this there is the repressiveness of the Western imperialism causing death of millions of civilians around the globe including hundreds of thousands of civilians in Iran when Saddam used weapons of mass destruction supplied by Donald Rumsfeld. [Making Iran the Nation which suffered the most from WMD]The West persecutes minorities like the Muslims and is driving out Al-Jazeera TV which has views inconsistent with those of the ruling elite. Hopefully the West will change its behaviour but it will require continuing pressure from the rest of the World and hopefully from more moderate Muslim countries like Turkey. It is not a good sign that Turkey’s president dismisses the threat the West poses as mere rhetoric.”
Funny, isn’t it, Mr. Martin Bebow?
As a Persian (not living in IRI), I request you to research if Iran (IRI) has so far initiated any war or aggression against any other sovereign Nation? Research and see how Jews, Zoroastrians, Orthodox & other Christians live in Iran!
Disclaimer: I do not approve (nor disapprove) of the current regime in Iran. I respect the West and was educated in US, work for a US firm, respect most of the Western values. I fully endorse Mustafa Akyol’s views of dialogue, understanding and cooperation btw the West & the Muslim World.
Behruz Himo. I noticed you only listed the established religions that the Iranian constitution recognizes. What about Hindus, Buddhists and the most numerous minority in Iran – Bahais? I’m certainly not going to argue that the US is blameless. But in the present it is Iran that is acting as the destabilizing force in the Middle East. And I am certainly not proposing the US should initiate military action against Iran at this time. But unless moderate Muslim nations like Turkey start pressuring Iran to modify its behaviour the Middle East could go from bad to worse.
I think some people are still jittery about the Turks engaging Iran instead of isolating it…Turkey is going to do honest business with Iran whether our administration in the US likes it or not. I don’t see why Turkey should pressure Iran for whatever insane domestic policies it has when doing the same for nuclear-armed Israel is not only prohibited but punishable by the international community.
In the past the US has done business with the Nazis, funded Al-Qaeda, bombed tens of countries in the past 20 years, and still upholds fanatic states like in Israel and Saudi Arabia. When Turkey invests in a country that hasn’t invaded another for hundreds of years, it’s a big deal? What’s even stranger is that we still have people in the US pretending to care about human rights in Iran while supporting the utter destruction of human life in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. I sense some other motives in this kind of rhetoric. I don’t want to call it war-mongering, but I think that word fits best. The way people are hyping Iran to be some sort of unstoppable war-machine is the exact same kind of propaganda I heard about Saddam’s Iraq after 9/11.
Some people also seem to be very concerned about Iran’s domestic treatment of certain religious minorities. I wonder how they feel about Germany banning Scientology? Maybe they feel Turkey should stop trading with Germany as well? Give me a break. Thomas Jefferson had a great policy in mind that Turkey would do well to follow: “Commerce with all nations, alliance with none.”
Kerim. Supporting utter destruction of human life in Iraq etc?? I don’t follow you there. The US made mistakes and the justification for invading may have been flawed but this doesn’t not equate to supporting utter destruction of human life there. And the main reason for isolating Iran is the fact that it is pouring weapons into non-governmental hands in the Middle East to create chaos in an effort to increase its influence in the region. The US supplies weapons to governments to maintain stability. Any rational thinking on the part of Turkey’s government must support stability rather than chaos among its neighbors.
Martin,
I’m amazed to see how blind you are! Who’s responsible for the chaos, Iran?! During the last 100 years has ever Iran started any war in the Middle East? Has Iran supported dictators all over the Middle East? Is Iran responsible for Abu Ghraib and hundreds of thousands murdered civilians and millions of refugees? Has Iran made Iraq a heaven for terrorists? Did Iran incite Saddam to start 8-year-long war with weapons of mass destruction used against Iranian people? Has Iran ever overthrown a democratically elected governments anywhere in the World? Remember Mossadeq in Iran?
While you think that the West has a right to invade countries thousands of miles away from its borders? Supply weapons to Israel and deny rights to the resistance?
I’m definitely not the guy who believes there is a crusade against the umma and that kind of stuff. But I do believe the West has a neocolonialist policy towards us and your way of thinking is an unfortunate example of how arrogant even educated Westerners are!
Does it mean the West is all homogeneous and we should consider it enemy? Of course not!!! Political and economic systems for internal use in the West are probably the best ways of functioning of a modern state! The West’s foreign policy though is cheating and deceiving the rest of the World!
Never ever the West is interested in stability and prosperity of the Middle East, simply because the region will not need the West anymore! Chaos and the civil war in Iraq is a strategic policy of the West! They can stay here indefinitely and appear to be protecting their dictator-allies!
The irony is that the power of the West is already fading! Open your eyes – trade of Gulf countries with the Emerging powers (China, India, Russia, etc) starts to exceed that of with the West. (The US economy is, unfortunately, deemed to a deep and long-lasting crisis. The credit-crunch is just the beginning – fasten your belts!) China is signing billion dollar contracts with Iran while neighboring Turkey & Europe are missing great opportunities.
There is no more one (or two) superpower – there are at least 5 of them now and they pursue objectivist foreign policies (national interests above all). This means competition and almost equal developmental rights to all countries. It’s like the market economy – we used to have a monopoly of the Golden Billion for providing us with security, technology, consumption – now there is a stiff competition and we are finally becoming like consumers in US – we buy whatever is best for us! Have a look at Qaddafi establishing his tent in downtown Paris and Sarkozy welcoming “the enemy of the West” in the Palais de l’ Elysées!
Believe it or not this is God’s punishment for all the injustice towards the Third World! No more supremacy of the West! While I pray to Allah that He, the Almighty, pardoned the umma!
I’m not sarcastic about all of the above – at this time it’s really important to have people minded like Mustafa Akyol (I’d say Fethullah Gulen, but you are not aware of his efforts) who promote dialogue and mutual understanding between the West and the Muslim World, for we can and MUST be friends, we can and MUST benefit from each other, we can and MUST build a better World!
Peace!
Mr Himo. We are not as far apart as your last post seems to
imply. I agree with much of what you said. I agree that
the US has done many bad things in the Middle East. I especially
deplore our support of Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran.
I also agree that other powers are arising in the world and I
think this is a very good thing. I also see a bright future for
Iran which has a deep culture and a young and bright populace.
So I am no rabid West/US bigot. I do disagree strongly with
your characterization of the state of Iraq now. There is hardly
chaos and civil war there now and I think Iraq will precede Iran
as a focal point of stability in the ME. I also think you are
overly pessimistic about the economic future of the US. I have
predicted for the last 10 years that the US was in for a period
of economic decline while the rest of the world played catch-up
to our standard of living. That is now happening and as they
say in economics, a rising tide raises all boats, meaning the
US will benefit from rising economies elsewhere. I am glad to
see that you are a believer. Living in the US now I am
surrounded by unbelievers and it is a real downer. But I think
you may turn a blind eye to the faults of the umma. Also I
had an idea recently about the decline of Islam. I would guess
that most Muslims believe Islam to be God’s final revelation
and that Islam with eventually become THE world religion. But
as Jesus said “Jesus knew their thoughts and said to them,
“Every kingdom divided against itself will be ruined, and every
city or household divided against itself will not stand.” Clearly
Islam is a house divided against itself (Sunni vs Shia) and this
explains why it rose and then fell. However peace be upon all
true believers in the one God.
Mr. Bebow,
In this year’s Nov 17 and Dec 1 editions of The Economist you can find out why the current recession in America is different from all the previous crises.
This time there are fundamental reasons which have been causing the decline of the US dollar and the dry-up of enormous seigniorage (profit the US Treasury earns from difference between the face value of USD and the cost of printing it). This in turn will end the USD monopoly as a world reserve & exchange currency and will make it ever harder to finance American economy which, you should know, is heavily dependent on foreign borrowings.
Think of a credit card company supplying you with endless cash for two decades, refinancing your debt for some time… but stopping to do so and demanding repayment once the creditor discovers new clients to invest in (the EU, Russia, India, China, Brazil, Turkey, etc).
That’s why I said that the West is not interested in stability elsewhere (incl. the Middle East) for only the USA must be a safe heaven for capital to flow in. This financial system (Bretton Woods II) had been enforced since the end of the Second World War. However greater political stability and lucrative opportunities in the emerging markets have been changing the routes of capital flows and the shift is increasingly evident.
This is not to say America will collapse – the American Empire will! The same way the first empire – Persian – ended and more recently British and the Soviet empires ceased to exist. A political observer would say due to objective reasons – I would say due to own arrogance and transgression of Lord’s Laws.
America will remain a superpower for quite a long time, but no more monopoly (or duopoly) on the international scene!
As to the Umma divided, our shiite brothers & sisters represent not more than 15% of 1.3 billion Muslims. While 90% of them belong to the Jafari and Zaydi sects which are almost absolutely identical with Sunnis with regard to theological issues (there are some minor political questions which can easily be solved once we get to know each other better – piece of cake during the age of globalization!). The rest of “shiites” are not considered as such by the mainstream shiites…
I consider the re-emergence of “kharijites” or so-called “militant salafis” a more serious, perhaps the most serious, problem the Umma faces these days. Here, again, we end up at the problem primarily created by outside forces (you realize whom?).
Indeed, the issues dividing Sunnis and Shiites could be very effectively addressed by Mustafa Akyol, every Muslim should know that the Al-Azhar scholars and many more theologians had issued fatwas (rulings) establishing Jafari madhab (Islamic jurisprudence school) as an equal to the four Sunni madhabs.
Mr. Bebow, here again, you don’t see a beam in your eye – words of Jesus, peace be upon him, are more relevant to Christians divided to hundreds of sects. Any Muslim can go to any mosque and pray there, there is only one Qur’an. While our fellow Christians pray only at their sects’ churches and have Bibles consisting of different chapters/books. Bible? Which Bible? The Old Testament whose authorship was claimed to be by the Great Prophet Moses, peace be with him, or Jahwist, Elohist, P, D? Which Gospel? Gospel of Barnabas? Why not? Please research!
May Lord bless American people! May He bring peace and prosperity to the World!
Mr. Himo. A very interesting post. I agree that not only Christianity (I’m not a Christian) but all religions have suffered because of schisms. But I think you are overly optimistic that Islam can be healed of its schisms. A religion is like a plant that is planted by its founder. If that plant develops a defect no one other than the founder can heal it. I’m not worried about any old articles in the Economist. The fact is that as the dollar declines it makes American goods more attractive. And the fact is that in spite of bleak outlooks in several respects the American economy is creating jobs. And the trade deficit has been steadily falling. No country (especailly China which holds the most dollars) would benefit from the US economy tanking and they will work with the US to prevent it. Economically the US will be ok. Its spiritual life is another matter. And yes, all power comes from God and is taken away by God. Something to consider when you consider the decline of Islam. No religion has ever recovered from schisms. Christianity will certainly never recover from it. Peace on all people of good will. And look to the real possibility of a Israeli/Palestinian peace accord in 2008.